Prediction of Konstantin Zhzhenov vs Aleksandre Bakshi at M15 Sharm ElSheikh 10-10-25

• In recent months, Konstantin Zhzhenov has a slight edge in second serve performance, winning 48.74% of points compared to Aleksandre Bakshi's 46.49%. Could this be a decisive factor in their matchup?
• When it comes to returning games, Bakshi leads with a 47.66% win rate on opponents' second serves, while Zhzhenov follows closely at 45.97%. However, Zhzhenov has a stronger first-serve return rate at 27.43%, surpassing Bakshi's 23.27%.
• Under pressure, Bakshi excels in saving breakpoints, with a 54.33% success rate compared to Zhzhenov’s 46.59%. How might this contribute to Bakshi’s in-game resilience?
• Looking at the overall performance in the past year, Zhzhenov boasts a higher win rate at 71.43%, whereas Bakshi's win rate stands at 54.39%. Who benefits more from their overall form?
• Both players prefer hard court surfaces, each possessing a 65% career win rate, but both falter on indoor hard courts—Zhzhenov slightly better with 45% compared to Bakshi's 38%.
• Despite both competing primarily at the ITF $10K level, Zhzhenov has enjoyed slightly more success, winning 71.43% of his matches versus Bakshi’s 63.64%.
• Zhzhenov has faced stiffer competition on average, with his opponents averaging a rank of 114.18, compared to Bakshi’s 466.4.
• In deciding sets, Bakshi shows greater composure, winning 69% of them, outdoing Zhzhenov’s 44%. Could this be crucial if the match goes to a deciding set?

Editorial Prediction (October 10, 2025, UTC):

Both Konstantin Zhzhenov and Aleksandre Bakshi bring specific strengths to the court. Zhzhenov shows a slight edge in second serve performance and first serve returns, potentially providing him with an advantage in maintaining serve and creating break opportunities.

However, Aleksandre Bakshi’s superior performance under pressure on breakpoints and his winning record in deciding sets suggest he might have the mental resilience to prevail in crucial moments. His slightly better capability in return games further enhances his strategic play.

While Zhzhenov has played against stronger opponents and showcases a better win record over the past year, Bakshi's prowess in critical match situations, and his ability to save breakpoints and win deciding sets, indicates a capability to challenge and potentially outmatch his opponent despite the statistical closeness.

Considering all factors, Aleksandre Bakshi appears more likely to win this upcoming match, leveraging his psychological fortitude in pressure-driven scenarios.